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Dragon Invasion Nerfed

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  • #31
    its random, when i used my att i got 3 , 4 and 5 dice, no 6. When i helped someone later on he got a 6 for all 5 boses, max rewards....Play backgammon and you'll see that it doesnt have to be rigged to throw such dices 5 times in a row, it can happen to throw 2 dice at once, 12-13 times in a row and nothing above 3...happened to me

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    • #32
      You're all wounding my soul!

      The Probability, per roll, in a 4d6 System dropping the lowest 3 are as follows:

      Result 1, Frequency 1, Probability 0.1%
      Result 2, Frequency 15, Probability 1.2%
      Result 3, Frequency 65, Probability 5.0%
      Result 4, Frequency 175, Probability 13.5%
      Result 5, Frequency 369, Probability 28.5%
      Result 6, Frequency 671, Probability 51.8%

      Moreover, if you were to clear 5 levels and at no point had a result > 3, that'd be like rolling a d20 5 times and getting a 20 each time (5% Chance). 20*20*20*20*20 = 1 in 3.2 Million odds.

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      • #33
        Yeah we get 5 or 6 most of the time lol

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        • #34
          Odds dont change for a second roll, you always have the same odds when it comes to dice

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          • #35
            Originally posted by Brutal_Hobo View Post
            fool


            chance to roll a 1 is 1/6
            chance to roll a 2 is 1/6
            chance to roll a 3 is 1/6
            chance to roll a 4 is 1/6
            chance to roll a 5 is 1/6
            chance to roll a 6 is 1/6
            +1 its simple math and stat

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            • #36
              here's a nice calculator that can calculate it for you. You need to remember that you're only rolling 1 die, not 4, because someone else is rolling the other ones, so in a 1d6 calculation, this is your results:

              Click image for larger version

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ID:	1697019
              http://anydice.com/

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              • #37
                Originally posted by Zorich View Post
                You're all wounding my soul!

                The Probability, per roll, in a 4d6 System dropping the lowest 3 are as follows:

                Result 1, Frequency 1, Probability 0.1%
                Result 2, Frequency 15, Probability 1.2%
                Result 3, Frequency 65, Probability 5.0%
                Result 4, Frequency 175, Probability 13.5%
                Result 5, Frequency 369, Probability 28.5%
                Result 6, Frequency 671, Probability 51.8%

                Moreover, if you were to clear 5 levels and at no point had a result > 3, that'd be like rolling a d20 5 times and getting a 20 each time (5% Chance). 20*20*20*20*20 = 1 in 3.2 Million odds.
                I think the point of these threads is that there is a suspicion that the random numbers generated by the game do not reflect true, pure, statistical outcomes.

                How many times have you enchanted at 90% and failed three times in a row?
                How many times have you rolled those dragon invasion dice and not had someone roll a 6, given it should be happening every other time?

                Are there "lucky" times on the server when you have a better chance at a better drop (astral, event box item, guild blessing drop, anything) ?

                We will never know. Happy gaming!

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                • #38
                  Originally posted by ed_lathioor View Post
                  I think the point of these threads is that there is a suspicion that the random numbers generated by the game do not reflect true, pure, statistical outcomes.

                  How many times have you enchanted at 90% and failed three times in a row?
                  How many times have you rolled those dragon invasion dice and not had someone roll a 6, given it should be happening every other time?

                  Are there "lucky" times on the server when you have a better chance at a better drop (astral, event box item, guild blessing drop, anything) ?

                  We will never know. Happy gaming!
                  Flip a coin 100 times, tell me how many streaks of heads and tails occur and for how long. You'll very likely have stretches of 8 or 9 continual results, which - according to people in this thread - shouldn't happen because it's less than 1%.

                  I guess the coin is rigged.

                  What people seem to fail to realize is that maintaining a pattern is MUCH more rare than deviating from it where odds are concerned. 100 Coin Flips. The odds to alternate the entire run is 1 in 2^99. In terms of odds that is: 0.00000000000000000000000000000157. You're talking that you have better odds in winning the PowerBall Lottery 3 times than having that happen. You have better odds of flipping heads 95 times out of 100 than alternating the entire series.

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                  • #39
                    this post.... lol... I wish the forum had the option to 'share with a friend or tag someone' (if it does, I wish I knew how to).... rather then just send them the link.... because as a MathS major, he would have totally chimed in on this.... me... I could only lol..

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                    • #40
                      I usually only get unlucky on my runs, but usually get all 6s when I'm helping out others.

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