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A little bit of math on Treasure Hunt strategy.

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  • A little bit of math on Treasure Hunt strategy.

    tl;dr - Purples are never worth your time.

    *****

    We will assume that one always succeeds when upgrading maps, a best case scenario. We will also assume that one fights with a party of 4 to maximize bonuses. Assume that the player only spends wine to upgrade.

    Knowing this, we can answer the question if it is better to spend 2 wines on 2 blue maps, or 2 wines on one purple:
    • 1 purple + 4 green = 1 * (72 * 3) + 4 * (36 * 3) = 648
    • 2 blue + 3 green = 2 * (56 * 3) + 3 * (36 * 3) = 660


    But what about if we have 3 wines? We can now potentially upgrade to an orange, which increases rewards by 33% for the opener. This allows for the following combinations:
    • 1 orange + 4 green = 1 * (108 * 3 * 1.33) + 4 * (36 * 3) = 862.92 = 863
    • 1 purple + 1 blue + 3 green = 1 * (72 * 3) + 1 * (56 * 3) + 3 * (36 * 3) = 708
    • 3 blue + 2 green = 3 * (56 * 3) + 2 * (36 * 3) = 720


    Okay, easy enough. Orange looks great if you never fail. So what if we fail on one upgrade? That will alter the shards-per-wine ratio. Again, assuming no failures:

    Blue = (56 - 36) * 3 = 60 shards/wine
    Purple = (72 - 36) shards * 3 / 2 wine = 54 shards/wine
    Orange = ((108 * 1.33) - 36) shards * 3 / 3 wine = 107.64 = 108 shards/wine


    Orange looks pretty nice, doesn't it? Here's what happens if there is a failure upgrading from blue to purple:

    Blue = 60 shards/wine
    Purple = (72 - 36) shards * 3 / 3 wine = 36 shards/wine
    Orange = ((108 * 1.33) - 36) shards * 3 / 4 wine = 80.73 = 81 shards/wine

    Orange still looks pretty good. Let's look to see what happens if purple fails once to upgrade to orange:

    Orange = ((108 * 1.33) - 36) shards * 3 / 5 wine = 64.58 = 65 shards/wine

    Even after two failures, orange outperforms blue. After a third failure, blue wins out. The arithmetic is left as an exercise for the reader.

    "So what if I want to spend 8 wines to guarantee an orange map?"

    Don't. Spending 6 wines on an orange map is a losing proposition. Spending 8 will only make it worse. I learned this the hard way.

    *****

    By chance, does anybody have figures on the probability of failure to upgrade? This could help my modeling out a bit more.

  • #2
    Don't quote me on this because it's been a while since I've done anything higher than blue maps, but doesn't it cost more wines each level you upgrade? 1 wine to go from green to blue....2 wines to go from blue to purple ect. Seems like that's the way I remember it. And when I did the math that way it always seemed to be better to do all blues..unless you just have unlimited wines and balens of course.

    Comment


    • #3
      You assume way too much... making all these calculations pretty much useless. Why even bother assuming it costs 3 wines to get an orange, it will never happen (if it does, its not even worth putting in your stat book...)

      Also, why would you bother adding up 5 maps (like 1 orange + 4 greens) when you can just compare 1 orange to 1 green...

      Btw, whats this ? 1 orange + 4 green = 1 * (108 * 3 * 1.33) + 4 * (36 * 3) = 862.92 = 863 ??????? 863 what ? shards ? im lost in your maths dude ^^

      As for your question about the probabilities of failure to upgrade, it depends on what color you are trying to upgrade to i.e. you will fail more if you try to upgrade from purple to orange than green to blue.

      All in all, the benefits from purple or oranges are negated by that failure to upgrade (high) probability. I did some testing and calculations as well, much less complicated than what you just did.

      My conclusion ? Blue upgrade is almost guaranteed to work (id say near to 90%), Purple upgrade seems to be around 50% from blue and Orange... i ended up thinking id rather spend 8 wines to get it as it often was cheaper...

      So i've ''decided'' blue was the most efficient map to get but ...

      We now get loads of free wines from dimensional maps and ive found out that getting 1-2 blue per day wouldnt deplete my stock of wines sooo ...

      I guess you should get anything as high as you can as long as you have wines left in inventory to get at least 1-2 blue per day

      That was just my 2cents

      Comment


      • #4
        Originally posted by gimmickless View Post

        3 blue + 2 green = 3 * (56 * 3) + 2 * (36 * 3) = 720
        dam i wish i could get 720 shards per day from 3 blue and 2 green ^^

        Comment


        • #5
          reminder to everyone : just because someone pulled a lot of numbers doesn't always mean he's right.
          Originally posted by Wraithraiser
          Welcome to R2 forums. Where quality is nonexistent and quantity is only measured in the number of whines a single day can produce.

          Comment


          • #6
            Originally posted by Arlad View Post
            reminder to everyone : just because someone pulled a lot of numbers doesn't always mean he's right.

            2+3=8,
            3+7=27,
            4+5=32,
            5+8=60,
            6+7=72,
            7+8=??


            2+3=2*[3+(2-1)]=8
            3+7=3*[7+(3-1)]=27
            4+5=4*[5+(4-1)]=32
            5+8=5*[8+(5-1)]=60
            6+7=6*[7+(6-1)]=72
            therefore
            7+8=7*[8+(7-1)]=98
            x+y=x[y+(x-1)]=x^2+xy-x

            in conclusion 5 purple maps a day is the best
            IGN/Server: Crusader Kabam 62
            Class: Archer
            Battle Rating: 275k (with herc br)

            Guild: Black Lotus
            Sylph: Hercules ★★ 46968
            Originally posted by Wraithraiser
            but yeah. Robo_Hobo for presidente

            Comment


            • #7
              Originally posted by MsKink View Post
              You assume way too much... making all these calculations pretty much useless. Why even bother assuming it costs 3 wines to get an orange, it will never happen (if it does, its not even worth putting in your stat book...)
              Originally posted by gimmickless View Post
              But what about if we have 3 wines? We can now potentially upgrade to an orange, which increases rewards by 33% for the opener. This allows for the following combinations:
              [LIST][*]1 orange + 4 green = 1 * (108 * 3 * 1.33) + 4 * (36 * 3) = 862.92 = 863

              wrong

              orange costs 8
              it can cost 7 if you are lucky
              let me show you with a simple screenshot of your foolishnessism
              Click image for larger version

Name:	maps.png
Views:	1
Size:	808.3 KB
ID:	1706908


              1 wine is equal to 15 balen
              as you can see it doubles in the need of balens for next map jump
              the minimum needed to get orange is 7
              however it is guaranteed at 8
              and it is possible to fail getting a blue map i have multiple times
              your math is wrong in so many ways
              IGN/Server: Crusader Kabam 62
              Class: Archer
              Battle Rating: 275k (with herc br)

              Guild: Black Lotus
              Sylph: Hercules ★★ 46968
              Originally posted by Wraithraiser
              but yeah. Robo_Hobo for presidente

              Comment


              • #8
                just wanna add: orange map user has another bonus of 33%.
                so if you used your map, found the treasure, and have full party you will earn 199 shards instead if 144.
                Originally posted by Wraithraiser
                Welcome to R2 forums. Where quality is nonexistent and quantity is only measured in the number of whines a single day can produce.

                Comment


                • #9
                  Outside his calculations arent exact, should put the variations with stuff like 1-4 + the other types, 1-4 purple + the other types and so on to compare the outcome,
                  obviously the cost to do every1 purples daily could be even more expensive than doing 1-refresh to get an orange directly if u happen to fail repeteadly.

                  My team does usually 5 blues daily and sometimes when BB allow, do 4 orange/1blue run (something like once a week) and all i can say is by doing resistance
                  gems only in the events, my stock of crystals isnt really going down if you put in the table the amount dropped from dimensions daily (i keep basics and
                  intermediate up for now at all times).

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    These calculations are all based on invested vs. gained, and even if they do show you something, they don't tell you how to get the amount of crystals you need. I think the biggest mistake in thinking this way is counting absolute gains when you should be counting those relative to other players.

                    For example, people who have some extra resources will always get oranges daily. The cost of crystals is also steadily dropping as time passes. However, having crystals early means more power later. Through this, even if someone is getting oranges which might be less cost-efficient than blues in the long run, he'll have more crystals earlier and, through crystal events, might make his investment worth it.

                    Let me show you another brief example. Greens give 36 crystals and oranges give 108 in their most basic case. This is a ratio of 1:3. Though it seems like a huge difference, this will only lead to the one using oranges getting one level of crystals higher than the one using greens (for example, all lvl 5 vs all lvl 6). Even if you calculate the bonuses for using one of those orange maps yourself (+36) and the greater chance of thieves on orange maps, it still amounts to a small difference altogether (though some might argue that the difference in 1 level is rather large, especially with levels 6 and 7).

                    A single level difference will give you (on average) 60 less resistance of that element, which is about 8% reduction. In PvP, where RES reduction is used heavily this might matter a bit, but as numbers go up it is becoming less important. In PvE, dimensions should help everyone reach the maximum of 90% reduction against at least one type reasonably soon. As people are getting closer to this cap in several elements, more levels will be added, but the whole Battle Guardian system will start capping out.

                    So what does one really need? With the sudden overflow of bound balens from various events I'd recommend getting oranges from the one click refresh and blues when you think your bb reserves are getting low. I'm keeping 2-3k bbs with me at all times and using them freely whenever I get more. For the exact day-to-day recipe, you should just check your bb/wines reserves and see how much you can afford. Even though their value is slowly dropping, I feel like using bbs for maps is one of their best uses at the moment.

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      Originally posted by gimmickless View Post
                      "So what if I want to spend 8 wines to guarantee an orange map?"

                      Don't. Spending 6 wines on an orange map is a losing proposition. Spending 8 will only make it worse. I learned this the hard way.

                      By chance, does anybody have figures on the probability of failure to upgrade? This could help my modeling out a bit more.
                      Get your facts straight.

                      1) Unless you are soloing all your maps, every person can bring atleast blue maps, 15 bb is cheap. Blue is the best option under 8 wines.

                      2) Price is increasing every step. YOU CANNOT USE 3 WINES TO GET ORANGE!!
                      7 IS THE MINIMUM = GREEN TO BLUE + BLUE TO PURPLE + PURPLE TO GOLD = 1 + 2 + 4
                      That means you must not failed EVER. Failing once is already worse than blue maps.

                      3) If you have 8+ wines grab a guaranteed orange, there's a reason they put limit per day, shards per day trumps shards every 5 days.
                      [morfinnor]
                      Temple of Ibalize

                      Comment


                      • #12
                        Originally posted by WickedSilk View Post
                        These calculations are all based on invested vs. gained, and even if they do show you something, they don't tell you how to get the amount of crystals you need. I think the biggest mistake in thinking this way is counting absolute gains when you should be counting those relative to other players.

                        For example, people who have some extra resources will always get oranges daily. The cost of crystals is also steadily dropping as time passes. However, having crystals early means more power later. Through this, even if someone is getting oranges which might be less cost-efficient than blues in the long run, he'll have more crystals earlier and, through crystal events, might make his investment worth it.

                        Let me show you another brief example. Greens give 36 crystals and oranges give 108 in their most basic case. This is a ratio of 1:3. Though it seems like a huge difference, this will only lead to the one using oranges getting one level of crystals higher than the one using greens (for example, all lvl 5 vs all lvl 6). Even if you calculate the bonuses for using one of those orange maps yourself (+36) and the greater chance of thieves on orange maps, it still amounts to a small difference altogether (though some might argue that the difference in 1 level is rather large, especially with levels 6 and 7).

                        A single level difference will give you (on average) 60 less resistance of that element, which is about 8% reduction. In PvP, where RES reduction is used heavily this might matter a bit, but as numbers go up it is becoming less important. In PvE, dimensions should help everyone reach the maximum of 90% reduction against at least one type reasonably soon. As people are getting closer to this cap in several elements, more levels will be added, but the whole Battle Guardian system will start capping out.

                        So what does one really need? With the sudden overflow of bound balens from various events I'd recommend getting oranges from the one click refresh and blues when you think your bb reserves are getting low. I'm keeping 2-3k bbs with me at all times and using them freely whenever I get more. For the exact day-to-day recipe, you should just check your bb/wines reserves and see how much you can afford. Even though their value is slowly dropping, I feel like using bbs for maps is one of their best uses at the moment.
                        agreed.

                        blue give most when it comes to efficiency, however it doesnt mean it has to be the best choice.
                        if for example you are only capable of doing th once a week, but have average 7 wines per week, you can get purple or orange (if you have some pare wines left). why bother with blue then?:P


                        wickedsilk recommends to get orange maps, i have to disagree with that. th is probably one of the end game stuff you wanna buy. mounts, clothing, transposers etc all have priority first. maps are nice if you bought most stuff, but i doubt many free/young players have reached that point at this moment

                        Comment


                        • #13
                          i dont spend balens but i still buy 3-4 orange maps / week anyway. dimension are good source of wine, especially in floor 21 and above the chest give 4 wines.
                          Originally posted by Wraithraiser
                          Welcome to R2 forums. Where quality is nonexistent and quantity is only measured in the number of whines a single day can produce.

                          Comment


                          • #14
                            Originally posted by Arlad View Post
                            i dont spend balens but i still buy 3-4 orange maps / week anyway. dimension are good source of wine, especially in floor 21 and above the chest give 4 wines.
                            floor 21 and above?:P
                            do i dare to ask what map?:P expert right?

                            Comment


                            • #15
                              Originally posted by fenrir67 View Post
                              floor 21 and above?:P
                              do i dare to ask what map?:P expert right?
                              Umm yes. But iirc in lvl 10 advance they give 3 .
                              Originally posted by Wraithraiser
                              Welcome to R2 forums. Where quality is nonexistent and quantity is only measured in the number of whines a single day can produce.

                              Comment

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