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The fundamental flaw in assuming that everyone gains if you steal from your friends.

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  • The fundamental flaw in assuming that everyone gains if you steal from your friends.

    All the computation I've seen regarding ancient spirits contain one fundamental flaw.

    If your sole objective is to maximize your own gain, then yes, you're better off stealing.
    If you have an over-arching societal objective to maximize everyone's profit, I'm afraid it is not possible.
    This is a zero-sum game. Someone has to lose if others gain.


    Example:
    Players A,B,C,D,E.
    1 Crop per player.

    A steals from B,C,D,E and get 4 spirits.
    A plants his own and got his stolen by B,C,D.
    A gets 10 spirits from his crops.
    Total of spirits A gets = 14.

    B steals from A,C,D,E and get 4 spirits.
    B plants his own and got his stolen by A,C,D.
    B gets 10 spirits from his crops.
    Total of spirit B gets = 14.

    C steals from A,B,D,E and get 4 spirits.
    C plants his own and got his stolen by A,B,D.
    C gets 10 spirits from his crops.
    Total of spirits C gets = 14.

    D steals from A,B,C and gets 3 spirits.
    D is unable to steal from E because E has been stolen 3 times.
    D plants his own and got his stolen by A,B,C.
    D gets 10 spirits from his crops.
    Total of spirits D gets = 13.

    E is unable to steal from A because A has been stolen by B,C,D.
    E is unable to steal from B because B has been stolen by A,C,D.
    E is unable to steal from C because C has been stolen by A,B,D.
    E is unable to steal from D because D has been stolen by A,B,C.
    E plants his crops and got his stolen by A,B,C.
    Total of spirit E gets = 10.

    Conclusion: D and E loses out while A,B,C gains.

    You'll be happy if you're A,B,C.
    But you won't be happy if you're D and E.

    Your calculation is wrong because you only want to maximize your own profit, i.e you want to be A,B,C.
    This is inherently selfish.
    Officially retired from Wartune and Forums.
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  • #2
    and on the next rotation it can start with B,C,D being the main ones to profit, and on the one after that C,D,E then, D,E,A ...

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    • #3
      Originally posted by ElusionM View Post
      and on the next rotation it can start with B,C,D being the main ones to profit, and on the one after that C,D,E then, D,E,A ...
      In that case, you gain exactly ........nothing.

      Why would you steal?
      Officially retired from Wartune and Forums.
      [No longer logging in]

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      • #4
        And if you noticed my example.
        The sum output of crop is 14+14+14+13+10 = 65.
        This is exactly equals to the sum yield of crop.

        I re-iterate, this is a zero-sum game.
        You can't gain without anyone else losing out.
        We're operating at pareto optimality.
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        • #5
          I'm just gonna go with... maximum seed gain for free player is 136. Which depending on farm level is around 1768-2000ish.

          Maximum steal gain is 200 a day. Over approx 30 days? You can do the math on it.

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          • #6
            Originally posted by ElusionM View Post
            I'm just gonna go with... maximum seed gain for free player is 136. Which depending on farm level is around 1768-2000ish.

            Maximum steal gain is 200 a day. Over approx 30 days? You can do the math on it.
            As I said in another post, when you steal, you are making someone else pay more for his hawkstrider.
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            • #7
              This thread should be sticked. And everyone who doesn't understand how stealing works should be blocklisted. I don't steal and I won't, so don't steal from me. And it's less stress than "sharing".

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              • #8
                What also makes this tough for some players is the greed factor. Let's assume for a moment everyone CAN get the mount. Do you honestly believe players will, when reaching 2K spirits, quit sniping/sharing them? Oh HELL no.

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                • #9
                  Originally posted by ElusionM View Post
                  I'm just gonna go with... maximum seed gain for free player is 136. Which depending on farm level is around 1768-2000ish.

                  Maximum steal gain is 200 a day. Over approx 30 days? You can do the math on it.
                  The problem with your math is that those spirits have to come from somewhere. There are a plethora of players waiting in line to do the same to you.

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                  • #10
                    If everyone steals, they'll hit that 2k very, very easily. So why would you NOT steal?

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                    • #11
                      Originally posted by ElusionM View Post
                      If everyone steals, they'll hit that 2k very, very easily. So why would you NOT steal?
                      Did you read my math?
                      Which part of a zero-sum game do you not understand?

                      Maybe wikipedia explains it better:
                      http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zero%E2%80%93sum_game
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                      • #12
                        Originally posted by CondorHero View Post
                        Did you read my math?
                        Which part of a zero-sum game do you not understand?

                        Maybe wikipedia explains it better:
                        http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zero%E2%80%93sum_game
                        Hmm, maybe you don't understand, if every player steals from someone else, 200 times, not just 5 people sharing... Then they will reach a lot more TOGETHER, than they would of reached individually?

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                        • #13
                          Originally posted by ElusionM View Post
                          Hmm, maybe you don't understand, if every player steals from someone else, 200 times, not just 5 people sharing... Then they will reach a lot more TOGETHER, than they would of reached individually?
                          He simplified the current scenario though.

                          You also don't understand that the number of seeds/spirits is limited. You're stating "they will reach a lot more together". You're insinuating a group of players will come out ahead by a large amount. Where did those seeds/spirits come from? That's right, a large group of players outside your original group. In fact, using Condor's excellent example, your group of players affected *more* players negatively than in your original group.

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                          • #14
                            Condor is, of course, right. I didn't know so many people need explaining.

                            I think that the idea behind this event was to reward the most active players out there. It became an interesting social experiment where subjects have to choose between friends and power. A lot of people blacklist you for stealing these crops, some even though you had friendship x4 or more. I think that this is ridiculous - people are worth more than that to me (I need them for extra gold during other months of the year :P), and if I'm there when crops finish growing I lose 4-5 spirits at most from 9 crops which is negligible. True, the morality of introducing such an event is problematic. If you can't reach the goal without trampling over others in the process, will you still do it? (It could also be an evil plan to make players hate other players instead of R2 which seems to be the case often enough )

                            This is by far not the first game (or browser game) that I played and even though this event is problematic, it is far less cruel than most of the games out there. Don't wanna advertise anything (as I don't really like that game anyway), but take Travian for example. In that game you build a city instead of a character, and the buildings are built at the end of the building cooldown (not at the beginning as in WT). The game is relatively slow but it has an ending (it is possible to actually win) and you can't pay to win (you can get some nice features by paying, but you can do the same thing by playing or through referrals). Servers last for about a year before someone wins. So what's my point? Every week a few people leave because they were destroyed. Yes, it is possible to completely destroy someone, take all of his cities (except for one) and completely take everything he worked for (for those who know the game, I know that there are other elements of the game you cannot steal/destroy, but you can't continue playing with just those). Imagine what wartune would be like if people could raze your cities, even though this game isn't even focused on them. I hope that you can see my point here.

                            Well, you'll say, that's why I don't play games like that. This isn't what I signed up for. Stealers will become stronger and after the event ends nobody will even remember they stole. Well, I don't have a really good answer for that. But it does resemble life in a way that history is written by the winners.

                            Hope this event doesn't crush you people. Have fun.

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                            • #15
                              Taking ancient seeds from a player reduces the number they can receive by 10%.
                              If they then took ancient seeds from other players, that would reduce the number those players receive by 10%.
                              Continue the cycle - someone has to lose if you're gaining.
                              There is no "winning" in this game unless someone loses, and that person will be very, very unhappy.
                              Regardless, this isn't necessarily a determent to stealing, rather a complication, since the person being stolen from can themselves steal from others.
                              In theory, it could go full circle, and everybody ends up where they started, or otherwise at the very least somebody you don't care about suffers.
                              If you don't care about them, why should you care that they suffered?
                              This is one rationality for stealing, though don't dare apply it to the real world.

                              If you still don't understand, find an abacus, and try to increase the number of balls on both sides.
                              It's actually impossible - increasing one side reduces the other.

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