Cloth Synthesis Event 8/16~8/17/2013

[anichaos]

Question arise...

Is the Cloth Synth a "one time deal" like Ultimate Refiner, or is it unlimited?

Learning to Tailor - Clothing Synthesis

Duration: 8/16 - 8/17 23:59:59 (Server Time)

Servers:
R2Games: S1 - S294
Kongregate: S1 - S12
Armor Games: S1 - S6
Kabam: S1 - S33
Description: Synthesize your clothing to the following levels and be rewarded.

Rewards:
Lvl. 2 Clothing: 50,000 Gold, Fashion Shard x5, Anniversary Seal x1
Lvl. 3 Clothing: 150,000 Gold, Fashion Core x1, Anniversary Seal x1
Lvl. 4 Clothing: 400,000 Gold, Good Luck Charm x3, Beast Mark x1
Lvl. 2 Wings: 200,000 Gold, Fashion Core x2, Beast Mark x1
Lvl. 3 Wings: 600,000 Gold, Wings x1, Beast Mark x1
Lvl. 4 Wings: 1,800,000 Gold, Wings x1, Fashion Core x3, Good Luck Charm x3, Beast Mark x1

IE:
Could you Synth a Lv.2 Wing to obtain the 2 Fashion Core. (now with 2 core)

Than use one Core to Synth a Lv.3 Clothing to obtain another Core (still 2 left)
Than use another core to Synth another Lv.3 Clothing to gain another... (still 2 left)
Than use another core... etc etc ... gain another core... (still 2 left) (now with all 3 piece of clothing at Lv.3 AND still have 2 Fashion Core)

Now use those 2 Core and attempt to get Lv.4 with one Core, and if succeed, you now obtain 3 Good Luck Charm
Than use the other Core and Good Luck Charm to Synth a Lv.5 Clothing and hope you'll obtain the Special Clothing...

This means.

If you start out with
Lv.1 Wing
Lv.2 Clothing
Lv.2 Clothing
Lv.2 Clothing

You'll end up with
Lv.2 Wing
Lv.3 Clothing
Lv.3 Clothing
Lv.5 Clothing

All from using 2 Lv.1 Wings.

[chrisdab]

I failed 5 times using cores to go from lvl 2 to 3 clothing. Lost 5 cores in total which I could have used for wings.

[anichaos]

So, the event should be up on all server now.

Edit:
nvm, you can do the method above... since synthesizing different pieces can be collected.

Up to 3 Fashion Core for synthesizing 3 Lv.3 Clothing.

[CondorHero]

Using cores, the "Good" chance of success translates to about 50% success rate.
"Fair" is about 25%.

So do it at your own risk.

[anichaos]

or spend another 900 balen on the clothing pack.

Synth that Lv.1 Clothing with the 2 free core you have to obtain 2 Lv.2 Clothing.

Than collect the 10 Fashion Shard to obtain 1 more Core, than Synth the last Lv.1 into a Lv.2 Clothing.
Now use those 2 Lv.2 Clothing to Synth with your existing Lv.2 Clothing to obtain Lv.3 Clothing.
(not sure on the rate tho, same level clothing is how much %?)

Now obtain 3 core after Synthizing.

[CondorHero]

or spend another 900 balen on the clothing pack.

Synth that Lv.1 Clothing with the 2 free core you have to obtain 2 Lv.2 Clothing.

Than collect the 10 Fashion Shard to obtain 1 more Core, than Synth the last Lv.1 into a Lv.2 Clothing.
Now use those 2 Lv.2 Clothing to Synth with your existing Lv.2 Clothing to obtain Lv.3 Clothing.
(not sure on the rate tho, same level clothing is how much %?)

Now obtain 3 core after Synthizing.

If you don't use good luck charms on level 2 -> level 3 clothing, you're gonna fail.

[BluePhoenix10]

when this event will start ???

[IggyBousse]

If you don't use good luck charms on level 2 -> level 3 clothing, you're gonna fail.

All my clothing lvl 3, never used charms, failed once.

[Drag0nsFire]

Used 5 cores to try updating level 2 to level 3. Successful only once. Failed 4 times.

[IggyBousse]

Weird that, I did it months ago tho, maybe they lowered the chances since then. because I remember upgrading a lvl 2 with a lvl 1 piece and it didn't fail (no charms) to get lvl 3.

[FarrelBrown]

Weird that, I did it months ago tho, maybe they lowered the chances since then. because I remember upgrading a lvl 2 with a lvl 1 piece and it didn't fail (no charms) to get lvl 3.

Chances are the same it's just that random number generation especially on a 50% scale has a tendency to go on streaks. Long strings of above or below that 50% mark meaning a bunch of fails or successes in a row.

The more you randomly generate numbers on that scale the closer to 50/50 overall you will get but it takes a LOT of number generation (sometimes into the 1000+ iteration range).

[IggyBousse]

Well, talking to guildies, 2 of them have nothing but fails trying to get from +2 to +3, with charms.
If it was an exception I'd understand, but it seems many people are failing. Must be something wrong to be honest.

[FarrelBrown]

And the amount of iterations necessary is directly linked to the number range they use as well. 50% chance on a coin flip will usually balance out at around 100 flips (53/47 or so) because there are only 2 values. when they say 50% chance however they usually mean they have a random number generation program that will go from 0-100 meaning anything from 0-49 is failure and anything 50-100 is success. When the number range is THIS wide for failure and success you are going to need 1000+ times generating before you even come close to evening out (560/440 or better).

And don't forget that once you stop consecutive generation of numbers you are, in essence, starting from scratch. If you only do 3-4 attempts then wait a month and do 3-4 more they are NOT cumulative they are part of completely separate strings. If you don't believe me then flip a coin 10 times once a week for 10 weeks and write down the results and then after that do 100 flips in a row. There will always be a statistical chance of similar results but the 10 week results on average will sway more towards one result than the 100 consecutive unless you get a MASSIVE one way swing(also completely statistically possible).

[anichaos]

And the amount of iterations necessary is directly linked to the number range they use as well. 50% chance on a coin flip will usually balance out at around 100 flips (53/47 or so) because there are only 2 values. when they say 50% chance however they usually mean they have a random number generation program that will go from 0-100 meaning anything from 0-49 is failure and anything 50-100 is success. When the number range is THIS wide for failure and success you are going to need 1000+ times generating before you even come close to evening out (560/440 or better).

And don't forget that once you stop consecutive generation of numbers you are, in essence, starting from scratch. If you only do 3-4 attempts then wait a month and do 3-4 more they are NOT cumulative they are part of completely separate strings. If you don't believe me then flip a coin 10 times once a week for 10 weeks and write down the results and then after that do 100 flips in a row. There will always be a statistical chance of similar results but the 10 week results on average will sway more towards one result than the 100 consecutive unless you get a MASSIVE one way swing(also completely statistically possible).

or in Simplier words:

Randomness is Random, nothing is guaranteed.

[FarrelBrown]

or in Simplier words:

Randomness is Random, nothing is guaranteed.

It's all well and good saying that but without a basic explanation of how that "randomness" works people will just assume they are being cheated or their "luck" is horrible. By explaining how a system works at it's core you are removing that unknown and people are more capable of wrapping their minds around what is happening when they click those buttons.

Also "random" is really misleading even though it's called Random Number generation since there are very specific parameters (range of numbers) which can be generated. True randomness would require an infinite range of variables to choose from.

BTW i think my explanation was about as simple as you can get when talking about statistical probability.....