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Patch 2.46 Part II
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Originally posted by Scyris View PostStill don't see a point to the clothing id system, seems like a stupid completly pointless system thats not even needed or useful other than for sucking cash out of people for yet another useless feature.
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@fenrir67: This is a not a continuous example, which normal (Gaussian) distribution is usually used for (in discrete examples you only have a finite number of options, in continuous this is usually an interval of real numbers). One of the reasons why it isn't used in these examples is because it has no minimum or maximum. It is symmetrical, however, and you could use one of the discrete distributions that approximate it.
@Kessar: Thank you, this helps a lot. I'm going to assume that refining resets stars (having more stars has absolutely no influence on what you're going to get from refining). Might make a new table for refining soon, then. It's not overly complicated :P
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Originally posted by fenrir67 View PostNot sure but i thought it was possible to get more than one staron the first identification.
Yea its uniform, but in my example (20 and 100 with equal chance) it could also be the normal distribution since they're the minimum and maximum:P and normal distribution has the same chances for minimum and maximum (i think atleast), i always hated statistics cz i couldn't see the meaning behind al the information (While i do have a strong feeling for math)
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Originally posted by WickedSilk View PostThat is interesting. I thought it didn't work that way, though. That's why we have discussions! :P
I thought it worked like this:
First you identify (this is the cost of gold). This always gives you one star.
Then you refine (this is the cost in Fashion Cores). I'm not sure I understand how this process works exactly.
If someone can give me more detailed info on this, I could perhaps calculate something differently and the result might be different.
Side note: You probably meant uniform distribution, not normal. Yeah, I'm a jerk
I'd also like to know how many Sky Trail attempts do we have per day. Is it really 10? Can we really take all 10 on the best stage we can beat and get max gold/xp? Or do they replenish like cards, one every 6 hours?
Yea its uniform, but in my example (20 and 100 with equal chance) it could also be the normal distribution since they're the minimum and maximum:P and normal distribution has the same chances for minimum and maximum (i think atleast), i always hated statistics cz i couldn't see the meaning behind al the information (While i do have a strong feeling for math)
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Originally posted by WickedSilk View PostI'd also like to know how many Sky Trail attempts do we have per day. Is it really 10? Can we really take all 10 on the best stage we can beat and get max gold/xp? Or do they replenish like cards, one every 6 hours?
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10 attempts a day, though there is an item that gives extra attempts. You only get a lot of gold and exp the first time you beat a fight. After the first time, you get a much smaller amount. Also, once you beat a fight with S rank, you can't ever fight it again.
You are correct that identifying and refining are separate. Identifying takes gold and amount of gold goes up and success chance goes down as you identify higher rank items. And when you identify an item, it will always be one star. Refining you do after an item is identified and it takes fashion cores (5 for S, 4 for A, 3 for B, 2 for C and 1 for D) and basically each refine has a random chance of giving you anywhere from one star to five stars (and can increase or decrease from prior refines of that piece of clothing), with the number of stars resulting in a stat boost that is a multiple of the base stat boost you get when you identify. So while you can take into account that refining will yield better boosts, that will only really be the case if you have the spare fashion cores (or plan on buying them) to yield those bigger boosts, and even then, what you get (from one to five stars) is random. You can probably hypothesize that average is 3, but so far in the refines I've done, I haven't gotten a single 5 star and my average seems closer to 2, so I'm not sure if random here means 20% chance of each outcome or some of the outcomes are more heavily weighted than others.
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That is interesting. I thought it didn't work that way, though. That's why we have discussions! :P
I thought it worked like this:
First you identify (this is the cost of gold). This always gives you one star.
Then you refine (this is the cost in Fashion Cores). I'm not sure I understand how this process works exactly.
If someone can give me more detailed info on this, I could perhaps calculate something differently and the result might be different.
Side note: You probably meant uniform distribution, not normal. Yeah, I'm a jerk
I'd also like to know how many Sky Trail attempts do we have per day. Is it really 10? Can we really take all 10 on the best stage we can beat and get max gold/xp? Or do they replenish like cards, one every 6 hours?
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1 comment about your calculation:
There is a chance to receive more than the given stats (minimum 20 and max 100 i believe at S rank) so, technically you should use the average of that for the calculation (in case there is a normal distribution of the stats obtained (there is equal chance to recieve 20 as 100 for example).
However it doesn't change the outcome of your calculation in the way of the most cost efficient order:P
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@labalaba: Yes, I'm aware of the memorylessness in probability. This is just the average gold (with large amounts of clothing this is how much you'd pay  and by large I mean something > infinity).
@MSEngel: Yeah but the box is easier to get and the next one is easier to get too. For me at least, who gets about 600650 points on average, this'll mean plenty of boxes for 700 which means more fate stones in total. Also, potential Mahra and Sepulcrum from shards make it a good change overall, I think.
EDIT (so I don't double post)
@fenrir67: I could calculate it, but since I'd have to invent most of the numbers the results might be a bit incorrect and it might get people to misinterpret.
What I can tell you is that (unless they change the way we get points) whoever was able to get over 500 points daily (or at least 9/10 times) will probably be able to get 700 points twice per week. This is more of a statistical guess based on my own score.Last edited by WickedSilk; 05072014, 10:47 AM.
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Originally posted by MSEngel View PostNow we are really max fate (people that doesnt cash for fate stones) with the first box giving 5 less stones... im upset.
300 points is the bare minimum everyone should be able to get no matter what (20 attempts, 10 points likely minimum + other drops and help).
700 points is actually doable as well and ive got without balens maybe twice the 1000 points since jewel hunt has been implemented. So you get more chests thus more stones.
For me this feels like:
300 points: 100% chance to obtain daily, before 500 points roughly 70%
700 points: 30%, minimum i think (havent paid much attention to the points i get last weeks) with before 1k points is 1%.
nice you calculated the value of gold per stat. i was planning doing the low stuff first, to get fast and easy br, but seeing you infor, thats kinda the best way too.
Ty vm
Edit:
Maybe OP could calculate as well what the average amount of fate stones we would get before and after patch, giving my random guessed numbers:P
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Now we are really max fate (people that doesnt cash for fate stones) with the first box giving 5 less stones... im upset.
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Originally posted by WickedSilk View Post
3. How does Clothing ID really work?
If I assume that the post on Symedia's blog is correct the next table should represent identification per piece of clothing(without refining):
Gold Cost Chance Bonus Grade 1,000,000 20% +20 S 800,000 30% +8 A 600,000 40% +6 B 400,000 50% +4 C 200,000 60% +2 D
So what to identify first?
I'm not really a mathematician, so correct me if I'm wrong. Also, confirm this if you agree!
The average number of attempts needed to complete an identification with probability p is 1/p. For example, for S rated clothing: 1/0.2 = 5 times.
From this, we can calculate the average amount of gold needed to identify per stat bonus to get the stat that should be identified first.
I'm using the formula Value = Gold Cost / (Bonus * Chance).
Grade Value Per 1 Bonus Stat S 1M / (0.2*20) = 250k A 800k / (0.3*8) = 333k B 600k / (0.4*6) = 250k C 400k / (0.5*4) = 200k D 200k / (0.6*2) = 167k
Chance doesn't take account for total gold spent, just tries and number of clothes available (more clothes less chance).
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It isn't stupid but nice addition When we can identify it for free why not
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Well, I'm going to use it to get some BR, and I'm not going to waste a single penny on it.
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