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Failed 19 times in a row to identify class A helm

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  • Failed 19 times in a row to identify class A helm

    I really wonder if the success percentage rate in clothing identification is a real one since I've tried to identified class A helm which success rate is 30% (that mean ... roughly 3 success from 10) and failed 19 times in a row now.

    I have 9 helms identified now, and since the 9th identification, all my identifications on helm are failed. Really wonder, am I so unlucky so can get that bad rate, or identification has cap or the rate writen there are wrong ?

    Got headache now ... ^^v
    'I'll win with attitude, and I'll lose in style.'

    MARVEEN HENDRAWAN | marveen
    FORSAKEN First Guild Master
    KABAM-S38 | Mage | Lvl.80 | BR 300k+

  • #2
    Originally posted by mhendrawan View Post
    I really wonder if the success percentage rate in clothing identification is a real one since I've tried to identified class A helm which success rate is 30% (that mean ... roughly 3 success from 10) and failed 19 times in a row now.

    I have 9 helms identified now, and since the 9th identification, all my identifications on helm are failed. Really wonder, am I so unlucky so can get that bad rate, or identification has cap or the rate writen there are wrong ?

    Got headache now ... ^^v

    U r saying the truth , even I am facing the same problem & have now stopped after trying it for 25 times. This is crazy & it sucks

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    • #3
      I identified all my A equipment first attempt, then failed a lot of times to identify a stupid B armor. Now I have all but 1 A armor identified and I've failed 6-7 times I think to identify it (I just got it from failed synthesis). Maybe after I have all my astrals level 10 I'll try again lol.
      IGN: AncientEvil
      Server: EU-271+merged
      Class: Archer
      Getting less Evil and more Ancient every day.

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      • #4
        Try failing 20+ times on an S rank, lol.

        In any case the percentage isn't counted from all attempts.

        Attempt 1 - 30%
        Attempt 2 - 30%
        etc

        Every time you try you have 70% chance of failing, and while it does suck that's wartune for you. Luck is what you need.

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        • #5
          doesn't matter what u try, my friend has archer all s equipment first try identify. spend 10 x trying on b ... lolz

          same with myself, B stuff won't identify
          S stuff took a couple of tries....

          All luck
          Death comes when you hear the Banshee.....

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          • #6
            Oh ... I got friends then mwahahaha ...
            'I'll win with attitude, and I'll lose in style.'

            MARVEEN HENDRAWAN | marveen
            FORSAKEN First Guild Master
            KABAM-S38 | Mage | Lvl.80 | BR 300k+

            Comment


            • #7
              People seem to think about this all wrong. 20% chance doesnt mean " Identify 5 times, and you will get a success." It means every time you try, you have an 80% chance of failing; i.e. you will fail almost always. It is only with large sample sizes (several hundred atleast) that you will start to see the pattern move towards 4 failures per 1 success. My first two S's took me exactly 10 times to get two successes. My next S took 16 tries for success. Its all in the fact that with these low percentages are basically telling you that you will fail almost always.

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              • #8
                Originally posted by Mr.Mr View Post
                People seem to think about this all wrong. 20% chance doesnt mean " Identify 5 times, and you will get a success." It means every time you try, you have an 80% chance of failing; i.e. you will fail almost always. It is only with large sample sizes (several hundred atleast) that you will start to see the pattern move towards 4 failures per 1 success. My first two S's took me exactly 10 times to get two successes. My next S took 16 tries for success. Its all in the fact that with these low percentages are basically telling you that you will fail almost always.
                30% is something quite high enough i think ... it almost 1 of 3 ... and 20 times doing it in a row and all failed .... or like akdaga 25 times and all failed ... logicaly quite in doubt if it's really a 30% ^^v
                'I'll win with attitude, and I'll lose in style.'

                MARVEEN HENDRAWAN | marveen
                FORSAKEN First Guild Master
                KABAM-S38 | Mage | Lvl.80 | BR 300k+

                Comment


                • #9
                  Still though, you are thinking of it all wrong. You will fail far more often then you will succeed. Let me put it this way. 30% chance applies every single turn, it doesnt mean that as you do it more and more, you will have a higher chance of succeeding, solely because you failed the last 7 times. Its a 70% fail chance every single try. This is why you can easily fail far more times then the probability says. It is all luck. I identified 6 B wings in 9 tries, also dumped 15 tries into my first A weapon. Its all because the system is designed to make you fail nearlly every time, less that one lucky time.

                  And i will agree with you, 20-25 times to fail on a 30% chance is a bit outrageous, but I am just trying to explain how and why that happens

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                  • #10
                    In other words, your pretty "lucky" to have failed that many times in terms of probability.

                    And where did u get that much gold btw?

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                    • #11
                      Can I haz you guy's gold plz?

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                      • #12
                        while it's true that each time you try to identify the A class item you have a 70% chance of failing each attempt, the odds of failing 19 times in a row are quite low. You'd calculate it as 0.70^19, which gives a result of 0.0011 (slightly better than 1 in 1000).

                        Comment


                        • #13
                          Originally posted by matyre View Post
                          In other words, your pretty "lucky" to have failed that many times in terms of probability.

                          And where did u get that much gold btw?
                          Saved tons of VIP tokens, a little alchemy and WB that gave me around 2.5 M per event, plus selling the luck stones like crazy.
                          And don't forget, u can save the WB bonus in your mail quite long if u didn't read it ... ^^v
                          'I'll win with attitude, and I'll lose in style.'

                          MARVEEN HENDRAWAN | marveen
                          FORSAKEN First Guild Master
                          KABAM-S38 | Mage | Lvl.80 | BR 300k+

                          Comment


                          • #14
                            I've given up now - far too much gold wasted and only a few items identified.

                            I understand the refining being made hit or miss, since fashion cores bring in balens to Kabam/R2 - but I fail to see the point of making the rate of success of identification so low?

                            I'm out until the identifying odds are improved, or until they make it 100% chance of success perhaps at a higher gold cost.

                            ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
                            FireAndIce
                            Mage
                            2.6m+ br.... it moves up daily!
                            Kabam S8
                            Legends
                            Moderate casher

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                            • #15
                              LOL , that s uck identification just need lucky only.

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