Failed 19 times in a row to identify class A helm

[mhendrawan]

I really wonder if the success percentage rate in clothing identification is a real one since I've tried to identified class A helm which success rate is 30% (that mean ... roughly 3 success from 10) and failed 19 times in a row now.

I have 9 helms identified now, and since the 9th identification, all my identifications on helm are failed. Really wonder, am I so unlucky so can get that bad rate, or identification has cap or the rate writen there are wrong ?

Got headache now ... ^^v

[akdaga]

I really wonder if the success percentage rate in clothing identification is a real one since I've tried to identified class A helm which success rate is 30% (that mean ... roughly 3 success from 10) and failed 19 times in a row now.

I have 9 helms identified now, and since the 9th identification, all my identifications on helm are failed. Really wonder, am I so unlucky so can get that bad rate, or identification has cap or the rate writen there are wrong ?

Got headache now ... ^^v

U r saying the truth , even I am facing the same problem & have now stopped after trying it for 25 times. This is crazy & it sucks

[ancev]

I identified all my A equipment first attempt, then failed a lot of times to identify a stupid B armor. Now I have all but 1 A armor identified and I've failed 6-7 times I think to identify it (I just got it from failed synthesis). Maybe after I have all my astrals level 10 I'll try again lol.

[Wraithraiser]

Try failing 20+ times on an S rank, lol.

In any case the percentage isn't counted from all attempts.

Attempt 1 - 30%
Attempt 2 - 30%
etc

Every time you try you have 70% chance of failing, and while it does suck that's wartune for you. Luck is what you need.

[B4nsh33]

doesn't matter what u try, my friend has archer all s equipment first try identify. spend 10 x trying on b ... lolz

same with myself, B stuff won't identify
S stuff took a couple of tries....

All luck

[mhendrawan]

Oh ... I got friends then mwahahaha ...

[Mr.Mr]

People seem to think about this all wrong. 20% chance doesnt mean " Identify 5 times, and you will get a success." It means every time you try, you have an 80% chance of failing; i.e. you will fail almost always. It is only with large sample sizes (several hundred atleast) that you will start to see the pattern move towards 4 failures per 1 success. My first two S's took me exactly 10 times to get two successes. My next S took 16 tries for success. Its all in the fact that with these low percentages are basically telling you that you will fail almost always.

[mhendrawan]

People seem to think about this all wrong. 20% chance doesnt mean " Identify 5 times, and you will get a success." It means every time you try, you have an 80% chance of failing; i.e. you will fail almost always. It is only with large sample sizes (several hundred atleast) that you will start to see the pattern move towards 4 failures per 1 success. My first two S's took me exactly 10 times to get two successes. My next S took 16 tries for success. Its all in the fact that with these low percentages are basically telling you that you will fail almost always.

30% is something quite high enough i think ... it almost 1 of 3 ... and 20 times doing it in a row and all failed .... or like akdaga 25 times and all failed ... logicaly quite in doubt if it's really a 30% ^^v

[Mr.Mr]

Still though, you are thinking of it all wrong. You will fail far more often then you will succeed. Let me put it this way. 30% chance applies every single turn, it doesnt mean that as you do it more and more, you will have a higher chance of succeeding, solely because you failed the last 7 times. Its a 70% fail chance every single try. This is why you can easily fail far more times then the probability says. It is all luck. I identified 6 B wings in 9 tries, also dumped 15 tries into my first A weapon. Its all because the system is designed to make you fail nearlly every time, less that one lucky time.

And i will agree with you, 20-25 times to fail on a 30% chance is a bit outrageous, but I am just trying to explain how and why that happens

[matyre]

In other words, your pretty "lucky" to have failed that many times in terms of probability.

And where did u get that much gold btw?

[anichaos]

Can I haz you guy's gold plz?

[Darkling1976]

while it's true that each time you try to identify the A class item you have a 70% chance of failing each attempt, the odds of failing 19 times in a row are quite low. You'd calculate it as 0.70^19, which gives a result of 0.0011 (slightly better than 1 in 1000).

[mhendrawan]

In other words, your pretty "lucky" to have failed that many times in terms of probability.

And where did u get that much gold btw?

Saved tons of VIP tokens, a little alchemy and WB that gave me around 2.5 M per event, plus selling the luck stones like crazy.
And don't forget, u can save the WB bonus in your mail quite long if u didn't read it ... ^^v

[FireAndIceS8]

I've given up now - far too much gold wasted and only a few items identified.

I understand the refining being made hit or miss, since fashion cores bring in balens to Kabam/R2 - but I fail to see the point of making the rate of success of identification so low?

I'm out until the identifying odds are improved, or until they make it 100% chance of success perhaps at a higher gold cost.

[JiraiyaGM]

LOL , that s uck identification just need lucky only.