This is meant as a feedback to R2 directly so I am not interested in hearing from trolls.
Many aspects of the game involved "random" chance and involve the use of balens. Since balens cost money this is no different from slot machines or the use of chips at most gambling casinos. I would assume then that they are bound by the same laws concerning fairness, etc i.e. I would imagine if R2 was deliberately manipulating odds a legal case could be made. I am interested in stats in the game so I monitor these things. Now we all know that the lvl 7 gems from the VIP wheel never happen but this is no problem from a legal perspective - VIP tokens aren't brought directly and the different colours of the boxes etc give enough wriggle room to argue that the odds for each are indeed different.
But take a look at Sky trails - wishing wall. Here you are shown 8 cards with 8 different rewards and you are promised these rewards are the same always. You can pay 60 balens to "take another look". Now this game is just like the "find the queen" game the street hustler does - you know the three cards shuffled back and forth and then he asks which one is the queen.
Lets just turn one over: what is the probability you draw the will crystals? Well to my mind it is p=1/8=0.125. If it wasn't it would have to mean that R2 have grossly misled the consumer by showing it as a 8 card version of find the queen - to the extent that a legal case could be made. In particular they are changing the odds based on your choice. They promise that one of the cards is the will crystals so if the probability is not 1/8 they are choosing the reward after you have selected. I think R2 would be very hard pressed to argue in a court, that such a practice is fair. SO what is the probability? Is it 1/8? Of course one cannot know for certainty but the branch of mathematics known as Statistics enables us to test and make reasonably definitive statements about likelihood - if I toss a coin 100 times and it comes up heads 100 times we can be pretty certain it is not fair and a court is likely to side on the expert opinion.
I used 100 sky horns turning over just one card as a test. As a single card draw this is a Bernoulli trail and n=100 trials are governed by a binomial distribution. The mean number of successes is np=100 * 1/8 = 12.5. The number is large enough so that the distribution of actual successes is roughly a normal distribution with standard deviation of sqrt(np(1-p))=3.3. This means if you did the same experiment 100 times over, about 68% of the time you would get the will crystals something in the approximate range 9 to 16 times.
How many did I actually get? 2.
What is the probability (assuming fairness) that one gets 2 or less in such an experiment? 0.046%
That is to say IF it was fair, and I did this 100 trial experiment this result or worse would happen about 1 in 2000 times. Incidentally from my trial i can estimate the probability of getting the will crystals in the first draw is more likely 2% with an estimate error (in the standard deviation sense) is about 1% i.e. it is (1-3)% with 68% confidence. At the higher than 99% level I can reject the hypothesis that it is 12.5% and R2 has with almost certainty misled the consumer.
Maybe I am just unlucky and a case could be made for that. However as sky continues and I get my 8 per day (on average 1x 60 will crystal per day assuming fairness), the statistics will add up. Now I don't really care. I am simply informing people so that they know. I am also bring it to R2's attention. Sure the game has been going on in China for much longer than here, but in China I cant imagine there is as much consideration for the rights of the consumers as there is in the West.
Many aspects of the game involved "random" chance and involve the use of balens. Since balens cost money this is no different from slot machines or the use of chips at most gambling casinos. I would assume then that they are bound by the same laws concerning fairness, etc i.e. I would imagine if R2 was deliberately manipulating odds a legal case could be made. I am interested in stats in the game so I monitor these things. Now we all know that the lvl 7 gems from the VIP wheel never happen but this is no problem from a legal perspective - VIP tokens aren't brought directly and the different colours of the boxes etc give enough wriggle room to argue that the odds for each are indeed different.
But take a look at Sky trails - wishing wall. Here you are shown 8 cards with 8 different rewards and you are promised these rewards are the same always. You can pay 60 balens to "take another look". Now this game is just like the "find the queen" game the street hustler does - you know the three cards shuffled back and forth and then he asks which one is the queen.
Lets just turn one over: what is the probability you draw the will crystals? Well to my mind it is p=1/8=0.125. If it wasn't it would have to mean that R2 have grossly misled the consumer by showing it as a 8 card version of find the queen - to the extent that a legal case could be made. In particular they are changing the odds based on your choice. They promise that one of the cards is the will crystals so if the probability is not 1/8 they are choosing the reward after you have selected. I think R2 would be very hard pressed to argue in a court, that such a practice is fair. SO what is the probability? Is it 1/8? Of course one cannot know for certainty but the branch of mathematics known as Statistics enables us to test and make reasonably definitive statements about likelihood - if I toss a coin 100 times and it comes up heads 100 times we can be pretty certain it is not fair and a court is likely to side on the expert opinion.
I used 100 sky horns turning over just one card as a test. As a single card draw this is a Bernoulli trail and n=100 trials are governed by a binomial distribution. The mean number of successes is np=100 * 1/8 = 12.5. The number is large enough so that the distribution of actual successes is roughly a normal distribution with standard deviation of sqrt(np(1-p))=3.3. This means if you did the same experiment 100 times over, about 68% of the time you would get the will crystals something in the approximate range 9 to 16 times.
How many did I actually get? 2.
What is the probability (assuming fairness) that one gets 2 or less in such an experiment? 0.046%
That is to say IF it was fair, and I did this 100 trial experiment this result or worse would happen about 1 in 2000 times. Incidentally from my trial i can estimate the probability of getting the will crystals in the first draw is more likely 2% with an estimate error (in the standard deviation sense) is about 1% i.e. it is (1-3)% with 68% confidence. At the higher than 99% level I can reject the hypothesis that it is 12.5% and R2 has with almost certainty misled the consumer.
Maybe I am just unlucky and a case could be made for that. However as sky continues and I get my 8 per day (on average 1x 60 will crystal per day assuming fairness), the statistics will add up. Now I don't really care. I am simply informing people so that they know. I am also bring it to R2's attention. Sure the game has been going on in China for much longer than here, but in China I cant imagine there is as much consideration for the rights of the consumers as there is in the West.
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